There is no surge among white voters for Trump — at least not enough to offset the Republican and swing voters he will lose.
The newest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll shows Trump doing worse against Clinton than Mitt Romney did against President Obama with almost every demographic group, including men, women, whites, Latinos, Republicans, voters with household incomes of more than $100,000 per year, voters with a college degree, voters with a postgraduate degree and voters 65 and older.
African Americans, white men without a college degree and younger voters are among the few groups with which Clinton is underperforming Obama. But that should not give much comfort to Trump, who is drawing only 9 percent of African Americans compared with the 6 percent that Romney drew against the first African American president.
It would be a mistake to call Trump’s current path to an electoral college victory narrow. It is nonexistent. Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, once part of the Trump scenario, have never been “in play,” and he is not competitive in 2012 states Obama won only narrowly, such as Virginia and Colorado. Trump is more likely to lose North Carolina than win it, which would put him under 200 electoral votes.
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