Among likely voters in Utah, Trump’s support is 37% – barely half the support Mitt Romney earned in 2012. Romney, the first Mormon presidential nominee for a major US party, benefited from overwhelming support among the state’s Mormons, who make up a majority of Utah voters.

This time around, Mormons are split: 37% back the Republican nominee, while 28% support independent candidate Evan McMullin, a 40-year-old former Republican staffer and ex-CIA officer, as well as a member of the Mormon church. Only 11% of Mormons back Hillary Clinton, while 7% support Gary Johnson. That support is enough to lift McMullin to 20% overall (only 4% of non-Mormons back him), matching Hillary Clinton and putting him ahead of Libertarian Gary Johnson.

Mormon leaders have been expressing concern about the Republican nominee, and it could be having an impact on the ground in Utah. 61% of Mormon voters in Utah say the endorsements of the LDS church matter at least some to their presidential vote, and 47% say the same about the endorsement Mitt Romney – who has been an outspoken Trump critic.