Stu White, a good friend of mine from college who has gone on to become a military historian, brought to my attention an analogy that might be apt – the theory of how to “disintegrate” an army, by 19th century Prussian general Carl von Clausewitz. You don’t pound the opposing force incessantly. Rather, you operate in short bursts, allowing the army time to regroup, before pounding it again. The fighting forces won’t disperse, but they can’t get their footing either; you continue this strategy until nothing is left.

That’s what I think is happening to Trump, and what I anticipate will happen for the remaining four weeks. The Clintons are masterful manipulators of the media, and I suspect that every three or four days, a new bombshell will drop, each one a bit more powerful than the last. Maybe Trump’s supporters will regroup anyway, but I suspect this strategy will be successful. If I’m wrong, we could yet see a closer race. But I don’t think that is where the smart money is right now.

As for down-ballot Republicans, it puts them in a bind. On the one hand, it seems sensible for them to try and get out of the blast radius as best they can. This, of course, risks losing Trump voters’ support. On the other hand, as one of my friends was fond of saying in law school, “There’s no such thing as a lukewarm hell,” suggesting that since they have already attached themselves to Trump to some degree, they may as well hold on to his supporters and hope for the best. There’s no easy strategic choice for them; we’ll find out whether they make the correct one in 26 days.