Here's what will happen to the GOP if Trump loses

What is likely to happen to the Republican Party in the event of a Donald Trump loss on November 8th is this: nothing will change.

Assume for the sake of argument that Trump loses by a fairly normal proportion of the electorate – that the House is held by Republicans, and the Senate is either held or the majority lost, but not badly. What will everyone’s incentives be in response to this?

For the elected Republicans, the party brass, and the consultant class, the incentive will be to do what they always do: circle the wagons, blame right-wingers and talk radio for sowing dissent and distrust, work to preserve all possible levers of power, and concentrate even more if possible. Reince Priebus is an effective fall guy – let’s rewrite the autopsy and move on from there.