Slight majorities in each state, 54 percent in Ohio and 51 percent in Pennsylvania, said the tape did not change their view of Trump, while 44 percent in Ohio and 47 percent in Pennsylvania said it made them think worse of Trump, though most in the latter groups were not supporting him beforehand. There is a gender gap on this: in Pennsylvania, women are more likely than men to say it makes their view of Trump worse, by 53 percent to 42 percent.

Although it is too soon to tell if the tape will change votes outright the initial reaction to it suggests that it will certainly be on voters’ minds in tonight’s debate, and the response among women is notable in context because Trump was already facing deficits among women voters and in particular among women with college degrees, who give higher support to Clinton than they have to past Democratic nominees in those states, bolstering the overall numbers for Clinton.

But for Trump’s supporters in particular, the data suggests there isn’t much impact so far: Ninety-one percent of his backers in Ohio and 90 percent in Pennsylvania say it doesn’t change their view of him. That steadiness among current Trump supporters is in keeping with other polling we’ve seen through the year — in which Trump’s voters conceded their candidate sometimes said controversial things, but his supporters remained with him, often focused on other items like changing Washington or shaking up politics. In this Tracker poll, before the release of the tape, Trump voters said that the idea of “ending political correctness” is one reason they are backing him: Seventy-eight percent of his voters say so in Pennsylvania, and 75 percent of his voters say so in Ohio.