Sure, if you’re a Trump fan, you can find a few data points that look a little better for you. The latest Fox News national poll shows Clinton’s lead at only 2 points, for example, down from a 3-point lead just after the debate. A Suffolk poll of New Hampshire showed Trump’s deficit at only 2 points there. The perpetually Republican-leaning USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times tracking poll continues to show Trump ahead. But this is not where the consensus of the evidence lies, and even Trump’s best polls aren’t all that good. In the two weeks before the debate, by contrast, about half of swing state polls showed Trump tied or ahead.

Therefore, our best guess is that news events since the debate, such as the reporting of leaked tax returns that showed Trump reporting a $916 million loss in 1995, have also hurt Trump. His taped remarks about women could too, of course, once the polls have time to reflect them.