Clinton’s surge has been largely driven by her boost among independents. Before the debate, Trump led Clinton by 12 points (35 percent to 23 percent) among independents, but over the weekend, she narrowed that margin to 5 points (30 percent to 25 percent). She also retains a 9-point advantage among women, whereas Trump is pulling even with Clinton among men.
Similarly, white voters have migrated toward Clinton since the debate. She still trails Trump among white voters, 37 percent to 41 percent, but that’s a tangible improvement from the week before, when he was leading her by 11 points with those voters. Meanwhile, Trump’s struggles with minorities continue. He was the first choice for just 27 percent of Hispanics, while half backed Clinton. The disparity is even greater among black voters, 76 percent of whom backed Clinton, compared with 8 percent who chose Trump.
This week also appears to have been decisive for millennial voters. One of the more common story lines of the 2016 presidential campaign trail is that the Democratic nominee has struggled to engage young voters, and before the debate she led Trump by 8 points among voters age 18 to 29. But following the debate, that lead has ballooned to 32 points. She is the top choice for 51 percent of millennials, compared with 19 percent who back Trump.
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