For most of September, Trump has been exceeding his benchmarks. Clinton led him in the RCP averages for all of this month, but historical data suggested that her lead was small enough that the GOP nominee could still overtake her before Election Day. Heading into the debate, Clinton led by about two percentage points (the exact number changes if third parties are/aren’t included), which meant that Trump could realistically still catch up.

But post-debate polling suggests the Democratic nominee may have improved her standing. Rasmussen Reports released a poll Thursday that showed Clinton ahead of Trump by one point. This is a significant improvement from Rasmussen’s poll last week, which had Trump leading by five. Public Policy Polling (a Democratic firm) also released a post-debate survey that put Clinton ahead of Trump by four points. PPP’s last survey showed her ahead by five, but it was conducted in late August. At that time, Clinton was leading Trump by about four points in the RCP poll averages rather than one or two. Additionally, many polls have shown that voters believe Clinton won the debate by a large margin, and debate wins do sometimes lead to bounces in the polls.

If polling data continues to show such a bounce, it will likely keep Trump from exceeding his benchmarks and may even put him behind on them.