Could the UN survive a Trump presidency intact?

There are rumors that Bolton will feature prominently in a Trump administration. Facing this threat, the Europeans could once again band together to protect the U.N. from American aggression. In the Security Council, Britain and France might conceivably have to balance Russian-American initiatives, raising the intriguing prospect of London or Paris vetoing resolutions backed by Washington and Moscow. Germany has already stepped up aid spending and deployed more troops on U.N. missions in Africa. But with the U.K. and EU in turmoil over Brexit, the Europeans cannot steady the U.N. ship alone.

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Non-European states would likely step forward to help, although not necessarily in a very coordinated fashion. Latin American states are generally vocal friends of human rights and international law, although their commitment to non-interference in their own regional affairs often complicates their positions. African governments are keen to have more say over the U.N.’s peace operations on their continent. Ban Ki-moon’s successor as secretary-general would have to knit together the interests of these disparate groups in a rough coalition to keep the U.N. going as best as possible despite Trump.

The essential player in such a coalition would be China. Beijing may not have much time for important parts of the U.N. system, such as its human rights mechanisms. But Beijing has been at the center of recent climate diplomacy, working with the Obama administration to shape and ratify the Paris agreement, and has started to invest more in the organization’s peacekeeping and postwar peace-building efforts. So while Trump, should he win the presidency, might aim to align the U.S. with Russia at the U.N., many other leaders could respond by looking to Beijing for alternative leadership.

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