There seems little objective justification for such a move. It will be expensive at a time when state resources are already under pressure. There is no lack of political police officers and spies at the Kremlin’s disposal and this will neither generate more, nor create meaningful economies of scale.
Instead, it seems to reflect a dawning awareness on Putin’s part that his old strategies for governing Russia are looking increasingly ineffective. Previously, he relied on a combination of legitimation through propaganda and the forms of democracy, co-optation through increasing standards of living, and the implicit but usually limited use of coercion. As the record low turnout in Sunday’s Duma elections underlined, the theatrics of pseudo-politics are losing their appeal, especially at a time when times are hard (and more austerity measures are almost certainly imminent).
On one level, this move might also, in its own way, be about theatrics: if Putin does use the name MGB, in particular, it would be a powerful symbol of potential repression. After all, the modern secret policeman would rather scare people into line than actually have to arrest them.
But, like the creation of a National Guard earlier this year, it would also be an agency built for potential use. A KGB 2.0 would be a powerful instrument not only to suppress any potential opposition within the country, but also to watch and tame the elite. Tellingly, according to anonymous FSB sources quoted by Kommersant, it would also investigate major crimes including fraud and corruption cases – the instruments of choice for controlling the elite these days.
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