Momentum may be on Trump's side but he still has no path to 270 electoral votes

Here are some important realities to consider, which we’ll elaborate on below.

• Although polls show Trump gaining momentum in a number of competitive states, he’s only established himself as the clear favorite to win one of them: Iowa. The other three where he now narrowly leads — Florida, Ohio, and Nevada — should be considered toss-ups, at best. This owes to a combination of factors, including underlying survey data that bode poorly for Trump, as well as serious organizational deficits in big states, Florida in particular.

• Even if he carries all four of those states, he will still be short of the 270 EVs needed to win the White House.

• Clinton has lost more ground than Trump has gained, thanks to defections from independents and young voters that could prove temporary.

Let’s take these points one at a time.