Recent polls show Mrs. Clinton is not earning the same support among Hispanics, young people or white voters that Mr. Obama captured when he eked out a Florida victory four years ago in the country’s most hard-fought swing state.
Mrs. Clinton could afford to lose here and still find other routes to victory. Mr. Trump’s electoral map is narrower; he must have Florida in his column. But as the most populous and one of the most racially diverse battleground states, Florida is also a bellwether for the nation: a candidate’s struggles here often are mirrored elsewhere.
Polling in swing states that Mrs. Clinton once led, prompting predictions a month ago of an Election Day romp, now show Mr. Trump closing the gap or slightly ahead, including in Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Iowa and Nevada.
“If she underperforms what Obama did in ’12, she’s not going to carry Florida,” said Fernand Amandi, a Democratic strategist in Miami. A poll his firm conducted for Univision, released last week, showed Mrs. Clinton winning 53 percent of Florida Hispanics, compared with the 60 percent who voted for Mr. Obama four years ago.
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