I don’t agree with #1, and while #4 sounds like a plausible part of the story to me, as a truly major explanation I find it hard to square with Obama’s continuing popularity. #3 kicks in but as a dominant force, it seems hard to elevate when median household income just grew at 5.2%, inflation is low, there is no major war, gas prices are low, and asset prices are high.
On #2, I see #5 as a more convincing statement of related ideas, while admitting #2 is a factor. How well the Democrats do in the Senate might give us some bead on the relative import of #5.
Overall I am seeing a lot of room for #5 and #6 and #7 and #8. Presumably 5, 6, and 8 are hard for many Democrats to admit, and I genuinely wonder how their thoughts run in the quiet of their homes. Some are plugging hard for an extreme version of #2, but, as long as we are considering matters of prejudice, I find the gender bias of #7 easier to swallow. We did after all just elect Obama for two terms in a row, and we have never ever had a woman president or even a serious contender before.
Join the conversation as a VIP Member