Citi: People aren't taking the possibility of a Trump presidency serious enough

Trump tail risk?

A new note from Citigroup Inc. says that while the firm still puts the probability of Hillary Clinton securing the U.S. presidential election at 65 percent, investors are not taking the remaining chance of a win by Donald Trump very seriously.

“A 35 percent probability for a Trump victory is more meaningful than investors may be appreciating,” the team, led by Chief Global Political Analyst Tina Fordham, writes in a note published on Tuesday. “Political probabilities are not like blackjack — there is only one roll of the dice, and 35 percent probability events happen frequently in real life.”

While Trump has defied expectations this election season, the Clinton campaign has suffered a few perceived mishaps that could tip the balance. Moreover, there are a number of cards in play that could cause Clinton to have a poor performance on election day. The Citi analysts cite low turnout for the Democratic party as enthusiasm wanes, an unforeseen event such as a terrorist attack, or a health incident that causes a withdrawal from the election, as key risks.