Why Clinton’s narrow lead is bigger than it looks

To be sure, huge differences in enthusiasm and turnout can affect an election’s outcome, as can dramatic events that define the entire election or the nominees.

But in years when there is no enthusiasm gap between the parties and base party turnout is comparable, only a handful of voters in a handful of states decide election outcomes in very competitive states. And since many of those voters decide late (unlike partisans who decide early), some contests look closer early than they will be.

So, the next time you see media reports that Florida or Ohio is “close” or that Pennsylvania is “tightening,” you should not be surprised. They are narrowly divided states where it is difficult for one party to blow out the other in a competitive federal election.

But being “close” isn’t the same thing as saying a state is a “toss up” or both candidates have the same chance of winning it.