“Vladimir Putin is a strong leader in the same way that arsenic is a strong drink"

Judged by many of the yardsticks of success he set before his first presidential race in March 2000, however, Mr. Putin has often faltered.

Out With Oligarchs, in With Cronies

He has cut down to size or driven into exile some of the so-called oligarchs who made billions in murky deals under President Boris N. Yeltsin in the 1990s. But far from eliminating “oligarchs as a class” as he promised, he has created a new class of business moguls who still enjoy sweet insider deals and whose only real difference with those who thrived under Mr. Yeltsin is that they do not dare challenge the Kremlin.

An Economy Running on Fumes

Mr. Putin’s economic record has also been mixed to poor. The economy grew rapidly during his first two terms as president, from 2000 to 2008 — about 8 percent annually, on average, thanks largely to soaring prices for energy, of which Russia is a major exporter. But it developed none of the diversity beyond oil and gas or freedom from corruption that Mr. Putin repeatedly promised.

And with oil prices now below $50 a barrel, half what they were in 2014 and far off their peak of $145 in 2008, the economy is in the doldrums. It perked up slightly in June but has declined over all by nearly 1 percent since the start of the year. That is better than the decline of 3.7 percent last year but still a threat to what had been Mr. Putin’s contract with his people: rising prosperity in return for obedience.