Losing ground, fighters and morale: Is it all over for ISIS?

Within months of seizing Iraq’s second biggest city, Mosul, in June 2014, Isis had splintered the authority of embattled leaders on both sides of the now-irrelevant border between Iraq and Syria and created a terrifying new form of governance, rooted in an uncompromising reading of Islamic tenets and unchecked savagery. Isis leaders lorded over their gateways such as Manbij and Jarabulus, along the Turkish frontier. Foreign fighters, including some who have since returned to Europe, used the towns as waypoints when they entered the “caliphate” and when they travelled back to Turkey.

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Isis lost both in recent weeks. After a month-long push, Manbij fell to Kurdish groups whom the US had raised as a proxy infantry. Jarabulus, however, was taken in less than 24 hours by the Turkish military, which had made its first full-scale incursion into Syria since the start of the uprising against Bashar al-Assad five years ago. But even more important than Ankara’s stated goal of stopping Isis is preventing the US-backed Kurds from advancing into areas that would secure them their historical ambitions to control territory held by Arabs in north-eastern Syria.

By crossing the border, Turkey has changed the face of the war against Isis. A bit player for much of the campaign, it now has a lead stake on how the rest of the military offensive is fought and, more essentially, who does the fighting.

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