Punting is an everyday tactic. In fact, do the math and you’ll find that punters are paid, on average, tens of thousands of dollars for every appearance they make. But in 2002, economist David Romer at UC-Berkeley studied National Football League (NFL) games and punt data between 1998 and 2000, and found that teams would almost always be better off “going for it” on fourth down if the distance to-go was four yards or less.
“Even on its own 10-yard-line — 90 yards from the end zone — a team within three yards of a first down is marginally better off, on average, going for it,” ESPN’s Greg Garber reported.
When Romer updated his data through 2004, the conclusion only solidified. Punting was often a mistake, such a big one, in fact, that it might be costing teams who regularly do it an average of one and a half wins per year! In a sixteen game season, where a swing of two wins can make the difference between the postseason and the offseason, that’s huge!
In his analysis, Romer also found that teams would be far better off forgoing field goals on fourth down when within five yards of the end zone. Football fans are well aware that coaches often elect the more conservative route of an almost-assured three points, but a more exciting “do or die” approach is actually supported by statistics.
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