Moreover, elections characterized as realigning often demonstrate some shift in the electoral map. But the 2016 map looks very similar to 2012’s. Any shift — the possibility of a blue Georgia, for example — will probably be the result of continuing demographic trends — more minority voters in Georgia — not a realignment. Similarly, there’s been talk of Utah as a possibly competitive state. But defection from the Republican Party among Mormons (and other religious groups) is just as likely to be a temporary reaction to this candidate as it is to be a durable shift in partisan loyalties.
Another issue that might prompt realignment talk is trade. It’s true that this stands out among issues that are less neatly divided among partisans. Both presidential candidates have been critical of trade policies such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership. This represents Hillary Clinton moving more in line with congressional Democrats and Trump breaking from congressional Republican leadership. But the case for a permanent shift in the parties’ coalitions based on the issue of trade is shaky. With Clinton coming out against TPP — and embracing a number of conventional Democratic positions such as higher taxes on the wealthy — it’s hard to imagine that the business constituencies that have traditionally aligned with the Republicans will drift into the Democratic coalition. Without major change in the parties’ economic stances, it’s unlikely that we’ll see a new party alignment that pits business interests against a populist coalition composed of various groups of “have-nots.”
What kinds of issues and changes could lead to a durable party shift? As Marc Hetherington and I wrote in a recent piece comparing 2016 to 1896, if populism becomes a permanent element of the Republican Party, then things could change. We also observed that splits within parties can spur party transformation. Early in 2016, both parties looked ripe for this. At the end of the summer, there’s evidence that things are returning to normal, at least as far as patterns in the electorate go.
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