Alberta highlights that “whites are shrinking as a share of the electorate” in Florida, yet the Sunshine State moved slightly further to the right of the nation from 1996 to 2012. He writes that “it’s incredibly unlikely that Pennsylvania swings back into the GOP column,” yet the Keystone State was just 1.52 points to the left of the nation in 2012, suggesting that Romney likely could have won it had he won by just 2 points nationally. He writes that “Trump’s numbers in Michigan are dreadful” and that his winning there would take “a miracle.” Yet as of Wednesday evening, Clinton’s edge in the Wolverine State, according to the Real Clear Politics average of recent polls, is only 3.6 points bigger than it is nationally (8.2 points to 4.6 points—whereas Romney lost to Obama in Michigan by 5.6 points more than he lost nationally (losing by 9.5 points in the state of his upbringing).
Referring to further “changing demographics” in the states of Virginia, Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada, Alberta writes that “Marco Rubio or Jeb Bush [are] bilingual conservatives who strike a centrist tone and could put many or all of these ‘change states’ in play.” Perhaps—much like centrist West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin likely could have put a lot of states in play for the Democrats. But a viable presidential candidate must first win the nomination of his or her own party, not just win one out of fifty states, as Rubio and Bush collectively managed to do. Besides, Trump appears to be doing quite well in Nevada (he could well become the first Republican to win there since Bush), and he has just begun to buy ads in Virginia and Colorado, where Clinton’s strong poll results to date are aided by her having already been on the air there.
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