As of Tuesday morning, Clinton led Trump by 6 percentage points and had a 79 percent chance of winning, according to our polls-only forecast. But running our polls-only model using only live-interview surveys, Clinton leads Trump by 7 points and has an 86 percent chance of winning. Running it with only nonlive-interview polls, Clinton leads Trump by 5 points and has a 71 percent chance of winning…
Clinton is forecast to win 354 electoral votes in the live-telephone-only forecast compared to 315 in the nonlive forecast. There’s not a super clear pattern in where the gap is and where it isn’t, but generally Clinton is doing better in live-interview polls in blue states and better in nonlive polls in red states. Overall, the median state in the nonlive forecast is 2 percentage points more favorable to Trump than in the live-telephone forecast. That, of course, matches what we see in the overall forecast.
But it didn’t used to be this way. On July 1, Clinton held a clear advantage over Trump no matter the mode of the poll.
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