— Pennsylvania (20) is the biggest obstacle in this path. Trump’s problem is that while Florida and Ohio are competitive this year — as they always are — Pennsylvania still looks like a pipe dream for Republicans. It’s a cornerstone of the “blue wall,” having last voted for a GOP nominee in 1988, when George H. W. Bush defeated Michael Dukakis. Every four years, Republicans argue that the state is actually — finally — in play. And every four years, Democrats win by comfortable margins anyway: five points in 2012; eleven points in 2008; three points in 2004; five points in 2000; nine points in 1996; and nine points in 1992.
This year, it appeared that Trump, by virtue of his strength with working-class white voters, was uniquely positioned to put Pennsylvania in play for Republicans. But the numbers simply aren’t bearing that out. Every respectable poll taken since the conventions in late July shows Clinton with a hefty lead, ranging from nine to eleven points. In fact, Trump has led Pennsylvania in only one poll this year: a Quinnipiac survey taken in late June and early July that had him ahead by just two points.
The last two major Pennsylvania surveys taken — Marist for NBC News and the Wall Street Journal (Clinton 48, Trump 37), and Quinnipiac (Clinton 52, Trump 42) — shed light on the GOP nominee’s struggles in the state and explain why he’s an obvious underdog there in November.
Put simply, Trump needs to run up the score with white voters to have a chance of winning Pennsylvania. They are the state’s largest voting bloc, accounting for 78 percent of its 2012 electorate, according to exit polls. Romney won whites by 15 points that year but still lost the state by five points due to his terrible performance with minority voters. Because of this — and because of the reality that whites have declined as a percentage of Pennsylvania’s electorate in each of the last three elections and will almost certainly do so again this November — Trump needs to increase Romney’s 15-point margin to at least 20.
As of now, however, Trump and Clinton are running dead even among whites: Marist shows Clinton 43, Trump 42; Quinnipiac shows Trump 49, Clinton 46. With Trump so well-defined in the minds of voters, it’s unlikely that these numbers will drastically change by November. If they don’t, Trump will lose Pennsylvania — potentially in lopsided fashion.
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