Three new Emerson College polls show a tight race shaping up between Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Donald Trump in the key Rust Belt States of Ohio, Michigan and Pennsylvania. The two are deadlocked at 43% in Ohio. Clinton leads by three points in Pennsylvania (46% to 43%) and by five in Michigan (45% to 40%). The Libertarian Party’s Gary Johnson garners 7% of the vote in Pennsylvania and Michigan and 10% in Ohio. Green Party candidate Jill Stein receives 2% of the vote in Ohio and Pennsylvania and 3% in Michigan. Each poll consisted of 800 likely voters and had a margin of error of 3.4 percentage points.
In the three states Emerson most recently polled, both candidates face skepticism. Only 41% of Ohioans have a 41% favorable opinion of Trump versus 57% who have an unfavorable view. Clinton’s ratio is very similar: 42%/56%. In Michigan, Trump is at a 40%/55%, compared to Clinton’s 45%/52%. In Pennsylvania, Trump’s favorable/unfavorable numbers are 40%/58%, and Clinton’s are 42%/55%. Clinton’s unfavorability ratings are almost as high as Trump’s, with no more than 3 percentage points separating the two candidates. Trump tends to do better in states (such as Ohio) where Clinton’s unfavorables are similar to his.