Hillary's the underdog

Mr. Trump is surging as well in swing states, where he is now slightly ahead, within the margin of error, or at least within striking distance. The Real Clear Politics polling average for Florida puts the GOP nominee up by 0.3 percentage points. In Ohio he is down by 0.8 points. And in Pennsylvania he trails by 4.4 points.

This is pretty astounding, considering that Clinton & Co. has spent $57 million on ads thus far—$25 million from the campaign and $32 million from super PACs. Team Trump has put up only $3.6 million in ads, all from outside groups.

Mrs. Clinton’s campaign is weighed down by other factors. Her negatives have reached their highest point yet. Recent Gallup polling shows that 38% of Americans view her favorably and 57% unfavorably. That’s her worst score since 1996, before she entered politics in her own right, and a far cry from the 69% approval she enjoyed in The Wall Street Journal/NBC poll when she left public office in 2013.

Americans still don’t trust her. This week’s CNN/ORC poll found that only 30% of voters say she is honest and trustworthy and 68% say she isn’t, her worst rating in that survey. To put these dreadful numbers in perspective, consider that even Mr. Trump is beating her. Forty-three percent of voters find him honest and trustworthy, a five-point increase since the GOP convention. This despite that PolitiFact rates his statements “false” or “pants on fire” more than 50% of the time.