Still the possibility that Trump could further expand even the usual Republican margins among working-class whites has led many Democrats to the grudging conclusion that the race could be more competitive than they originally expected-or hoped. As much by necessity as preference, Democrats this year are increasingly placing their hopes on maximizing their margins and turnout among the “coalition of the ascendant”-the minority, Millennial and college-educated, single and secular whites (especially women) at the core of their modern coalition.

“Non-college-educated whites have historically voted at very high rates for the Republican candidate, so I wouldn’t make a huge issue out of that, and also the percentage who are in their category’s not necessarily growing,” Matt Barreto, co-founder of the polling firm Latino Decisions, said at the Atlantic forum. “We know that where the percentages are growing are in the groups that the Democrats have been doing well with—single people, unmarried women, blacks and Latinos, Asian Americans, secular Americans, etc. And, in fact, white college-educated are also growing…You still can point to this one segment, non-college educated whites, and the gap may be larger, but I don’t think it’s the big story.”

Given the stark racial and class polarization evident in reactions to Trump and Clinton, the Democratic pollster Cornell Belcher said at the forum the pivotal factor in November may be whether Democrats can generate high turnout among their new coalition, especially non-white voters.

“The question becomes that new ascending American electorate that you have talked about: I mean can Democrats continue to cobble together that coalition as Obama walks off the stage?” he said.