For example, pages have been written about Trump’s atrocious favorable ratings, which currently sit at 36.3 percent positive, 56.6 percent negative. But Clinton’s favorable ratings are not much better: She has a 38.4 percent positive rating and a 55.4 percent negative rating. That difference isn’t exactly meaningless, but it comes close.

What’s happened is that, amazingly, this race has been transformed into a race between a generic Republican and a generic Democrat. Right now, the so-called “fundamentals” of economic growth, presidential approval and incumbency point toward a slight Republican advantage. The polls simply reflect this.

The point here is not that Trump is guaranteed to win. Clinton maintains a large advertising and organizational advantage over Trump. But she has already dumped $50 million in unanswered advertising on his head, with little movement in the polls.
It is also 100 percent true that this is the middle of a convention bounce. I completely agree that the polls aren’t predictive right now, and that we should check back in September, see who is leading then, and by how much. To use a morbid analogy I’m fond of, if I were in a car wreck, woke up from a coma in December, and found out that Clinton had won by eight points, I would not be at all shocked. She may well emerge from her convention strong and jump out to a lead, and not look back. At the same time, however, I wouldn’t be completely surprised if she gets no bounce, and Trump doesn’t look back.