Betting markets run by companies like PredictIt and Betfair allow ordinary Americans to place bets on whether a certain event will occur. The more of a long-shot people think the outcome is, the greater the profit would be upon its occurrence.
Betting markets, then, can be used to trace the expected probability of an event over time. In the case of Donald Trump’s nomination, it started as a serious long shot, with more than 10:1 odds, which declined over the next nine months as it became increasingly clear that Trump would be the nominee. Hillary Clinton, by contrast, had the nomination on lock this whole time, in the eyes of the market.
In the graphic below, you can see how the profit made off of a bet for Trump and Clinton’s nomination changed over time.
Join the conversation as a VIP Member