With a few tweaks to his approach, Trump can win Pennsylvania

Hillary Clinton may expand on President Obama’s margins in the Main Line. And yet these municipalities are going to have less bearing on the net outcome than the outlying areas, middle-income zones, and white, blue-collar regions where the more persuadable voters who decide the county winners actually live.

One community that could turn towards Trump is Bensalem, in lower Bucks. In 2012, Bensalem gave Obama his second strongest margin in all of Bucks — 4,368 votes — and effectively handed him the county. But in April’s primary, Trump received more votes than Clinton, and more ballots were cast for Republican presidential candidates than Democratic ones. In fact, this year’s primary saw 30 percent fewer Democratic ballots cast here, more in line with declines in Northeastern and South Philadelphia.

Voter participation in the Democratic primary fell in other middle-income areas in the Collar, too. Turnout declined over 30 percent in Upper Chickchester in Delaware, and overall Democratic primary participation fell from 2008 levels in Bristol by 37 percent, in Falls by 32 percent, in Middletown by 40 percent, and in Tullytown by 36 percent. The municipalities that make up Levittown frequently lift Democrats’ overall margins in the county — if he can make inroads in communities with similar profiles, even with a decline in the Main Line, Trump stands to improve on Romney’s overall performance in the burbs.

Whiter and more blue collar than the Philadelphia metro area, Pittsburgh and the smaller cities in the west have been trending Republican for some time. Voter-registration changes since 2012 indicate that Republicans stand to make substantial gains here, continuing a multi-decade trend. Pittsburgh proper saw a 24 percent reduction in votes cast during the 2016 primaries, and predominantly black Penn Hills saw an equal shrink. Again, areas where the more mixed, younger coalition that has defined President Obama’s base have performed better than average in terms of primary engagement over 2008.