Will Tim Kaine deliver Virginia (and Catholics)? Don’t count on it.

He comes from a swing state, and he certainly has the requisite experience to deliver a home-state advantage; he served as the mayor of Richmond, lieutenant governor, governor, and now represents Virginia in the U.S. Senate.

But is that enough? Is Kaine so beloved by voters in his home state that tens of thousands of Virginians will prioritize their affection for a vice-presidential candidate over their policy preferences and their attitudes toward the presidential candidates, to vote as they otherwise would not? Based on the data, it’s highly unlikely. Virginia is simply too large and diverse of a state for a vice-presidential candidate to sway a statistically significant number of voters who might change the outcome of the election.

This contrasts with the home-state impact of the presidential candidates themselves. Depending on the method and time frame of analysis, as well as the candidate’s party, the home-state advantage for presidential candidates is between roughly 3 and 7 percent. Even so, don’t expect a presidential home-state advantage to matter this year. After all, New York is one of the most reliably Democratic states in the country, and both Clinton and Trump call the Empire State home.