But modern conventions are generally successful events. They almost always produce polling “bounces” in favor of the party that just held them. These bounces can be short-lived and aren’t always predictive. Still, some part of the convention bounce usually sticks, and polls taken a few weeks after the conventions are generally much more accurate than those taken a few weeks beforehand.
At a minimum, the parties almost always succeed at converting some undecided voters, who are leaning toward the nominee but who aren’t yet fully committed, into their column. So Hillary Clinton wants to persuade straggling Bernie Sanders supporters (and there are still quite a few of them) to join her cause, and Donald Trump wants to do the same for supporters of Cruz and other Republican candidates. Ideally, they’ll also bring some swing voters along. But if the nominees can’t achieve some modicum of party unity, the convention is a potential disaster.
So from a Conventions 101 standpoint, what happened in Cleveland on Wednesday night was a potential disaster for Trump and the Republicans. Cruz, the second-place finisher in the primaries, conspicuously refused to endorse Trump, and left the stage to a chorus of boos. An unusually large number of Republicans have also declined to endorse Trump, including Ohio Gov. John Kasich, who isn’t appearing at the convention even though his state is hosting it. But those defections might be forgotten about for a few days, provided that the party put on its best face in Cleveland. Cruz’s refusal to endorse Trump, however, which he seemed to draw out for emphasis to embarrass Trump, took place at center stage. It was bad from both a uniting-the-party standpoint and from a showcasing-the-ticket standpoint. It was among the most dramatic events that we’ve seen at a convention in recent years.
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