Is the United States on the verge of a race war? You might think so if you saw the New York Post’s “Civil War” front page the morning after the killing of five Dallas police officers. Or if you watched the YouTube clip of Baton Rouge shooter Gavin Long declaring, “It’s a time for peace, but it’s a time for war, and most of the times when you want peace, you got to go to war.” Or read the tweet from former congressman Joe Walsh (R-Ill.), warning “This is war. Watch out Obama. Watch out black lives matter punks. Real America is coming after you.” Or if you watched former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani’s speech at the Republican National Convention: “The vast majority of Americans today do not feel safe. They fear for their children. They fear for themselves. They fear for our police officers, who are being targeted, with a target on their back.”

It’s easy to understand why, according to new polling, Americans say race relations are getting worse. But despite real fears and frustrations, and those who are trying to capitalize on those fears and frustrations, the United States is unlikely to return to the widespread, violent civil disorder of the 1960s. Improvements in policing and community relations, along with the fragmentation of extremist groups, provide a bulwark against anything approximating a race war.