Trump’s 17-state strategy has a history problem

You can see that cluster where Obama’s margin was the smallest: Pennsylvania, Colorado, Virginia, Ohio and Florida. Flip all five of those and Trump wins by 52 electoral votes. This isn’t too shocking. If you weren’t aware that Ohio and Florida were key presidential election states, we suspect that you’re just a hair shy of being able to get your learner’s permit.

The problem for Trump at this point is that he’s already trailing in many of those states. Hillary Clinton is outperforming Obama’s 2012 numbers at this stage of the race everywhere but Ohio, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania among the states where we have data from the RealClearPolitics polling average. While she’s trailing Obama’s lead in those states, she still leads in all three.

Part of this is because her campaign is already out there campaigning. At this point, Clinton (and her allied PACs) is outspending Trump (and his) by a 46-to-1 margin in battleground states, according to NBC News’ Mark Murray.

To understate it a bit: Such an imbalance has not proven to be a winning campaign strategy in the past.