Why Brexit should scare anti-Trump Americans

The last red flag for those who don’t want Trump to be president is that you can only trust the polls so much. Just about everybody who’s anybody was in favor of staying in the EU — every living prime minister, the leader of Britain’s two major parties, Obama and the leader of every other important ally, academics, business leaders, and celebrities — but a majority of everyone else said no…

The polls before the referendum were close, and tightening, but most Britons went to bed Thursday night with the expectation that they would still be a part of Europe when they woke up. If the best polls got it wrong, it’s possible that Britons were telling pollsters what all the cool kids were saying, not how they intended to vote. The American elite — Obama, academics, business leaders, celebrities, and even a good number of Republican opinion and political leaders — are wary or hostile to the idea of a President Trump.

Now, Vox’s Ezra Klein makes the case for trusting the polls, noting that Trump led just about every poll in the GOP primary, but he inserts a note of caution, too. “Brexit’s win doesn’t predict Trump’s victory, contrary to some of the chatter I’ve seen on Twitter,” he says. But “when evaluating the likeliest outcomes, look to trustworthy polls rather than your gut. Hillary Clinton’s 7-point lead over Donald Trump still makes her the favorite, but if those numbers flip, take it seriously. Pundits who stick to their priors even when the data tells them to abandon ship are not faring well this year.”

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