Donald Trump’s campaign for president seems to be in chaos. On Monday, Trump fired his campaign manager, Corey Lewandowski, even though he previously promised he would not do so when other Republicans called for Lewandowski’s head. Whether the firing was the result of personal or strategic differences with Trump or his family, what’s clear is that it comes at a moment when Trump’s general election polling is spiraling downward in a way his primary polling never did.

Winning appears to be of the utmost importance to Trump. He brings it up constantly. When Trump is ahead, he has been resistant to changing direction. When Lewandowski was arrested in March and charged with battery on a reporter, Michelle Fields, Trump was well ahead in the polls. In the FiveThirtyEight national polling average, he led Ted Cruz by about 14 percentage points.