Despite Toomey’s claim that voters will view him as distinct from Trump, three separate Democratic pollsters — who gave me numbers while insisting on anonymity because they did not want to interfere with their current client relationships — report a “strong overlap” in support for Trump and Toomey, on one side, and for Clinton and McGinty, on the other.
Clinton holds a four-point lead in Pennsylvania, according to the RealClearPolitics average of the four most recent polls. Her advantage, however, is based entirely on one survey by NBC/Marist, which gave her a 15-point lead. The three other polls, by Fox News, Quinnipiac and Public Policy Polling, have the race tied.
In the Senate race, Toomey has a large financial advantage over McGinty, $20.1 million to $3.8 million. Ed Rendell, a former governor, told me in a phone interview on Tuesday that he expects McGinty to be outspent, but because the contest has drawn national attention, Rendell estimated that McGinty will raise from $15 to $20 million — enough to be competitive.
“McGinty is terrific on TV,” Rendell said. “She came across very well on TV ads, she speaks well, she has energy and passion.” He cautioned, however, that McGinty “in person, gets distracted” and can go “off message. She is not into candidate discipline yet.”
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