2. Presidential elections in Pennsylvania are close.
Except for Obama’s 10-point win in 2008, presidential elections in the Keystone State have been close. Previous Democratic winners have never received more than 52 percent of the popular vote. Of the widely watched swing states, Pennsylvania had the sixth closest popular vote in 2012. Every indication points to a similarly close contest in 2016.

3. The GOP was a Pennsylvania no-show in 2012. Romney made only cursory visits to the state, mostly at the end of the campaign, never seriously contested Obama’s modest lead. Consequently, Republicans spent little presidential treasure in the state – even less than in past elections. Still, Obama only won the state by five points. Romney lost Pennsylvania in 2012 because he thought he couldn’t win it and didn’t try…

5. Republicans seem resurgent in Western Pennsylvania. There is growing evidence that the western half of the state is diverging electorally more and more from the east. Obama lost the Pittsburgh media market in 2012, culminating a trend that began in the 1990’s. Republican strategists rightly see a great-untapped reservoir of GOP support among unregistered voters a trend certainly under girded by the Trump ascendancy. The stage could be set for a re-invigoration of the old conservative “Reagan Democrats,” particularly in southwestern Pennsylvania.