1. Unpredictability can be a rational strategy

Unpredictability is a rational strategy in games if you and your opponent have clashing interests, and your best choice and hers depends on what strategy each of you chooses. When choices are interdependent in this way, each side may intentionally be waiting to discern the other’s strategy to respond optimally. But if each side is determined to wait until the other side commits, game theory suggests that one should behave in a way that prevents an opponent from predicting exactly what you will do. That may include behaving randomly – because if your behavior is truly random, you will not be able to predict it yourself. And that makes it impossible for your opponent to outguess you.

Trump clearly grasps that unpredictability can leave an opponent guessing about what one might do. When questioned about whether he would shut down the government to pursue a cause, Trump declined to say, “because I want to show unpredictability.” He gave a similarly ambiguous response when asked whether he would use nuclear weapons to stop terrorists.

Leaving your choice to chance — in negotiations this may include walking away from the table, holding out longer, or offering a compromise settlement — can be both unnerving and effective. The uncertainty of your choice may force an impatient negotiator to move in your direction. However, it may also sabotage a deal. Appearing to be unpredictable is the essence of Trump’s approach to extracting the most from an opponent in difficult negotiations.