Trump’s favorability ratings need to rise above 45 percent — ideally closer to 50 percent

Candidate favorability or approval is a good way to get a sense of overall popularity. Trump currently has fairly low favorability ratings (high 30s to low 40s). In our view, the key question is whether this is a crystalized dislike led by groups of voters Trump has angered (e.g. women, Latino voters) or if this is only a partially formed perception driven by an overwhelmingly negative and acerbic primary cycle. Inevitably it is a mix of both, but our view is that the campaign effect is stronger than most realize, and that Trump’s favorability ratings will begin to recover. Indeed, while Clinton’s ratings have remained fairly steady in recent weeks, Trump’s have been climbing since April 1.