Krongard doesn’t believe Hillary Clinton is in danger of indictment from an Obama Justice Department. He believes that, even if the Justice Department were to pursue a criminal referral on the matter from the FBI, it would be plea-bargained down to a misdemeanor similar to the one that former CIA David Petraeus secured when he was found to have compromised classified information. Hillary Clinton aides have privately told allies they believe she could survive even that development if it was accompanied by a “heartfelt” apology.
Even if Hillary Clinton is capable of such a move, the FBI report into her e-mail scandal could spook Democratic delegates if the negative publicity generated by it damaged her poll numbers. And that could be a devastating political blow for Clinton. Unlike Republican delegates, who are “bound” to vote for the winner of their state’s primary or caucus on the first ballot, Democratic delegates are only “pledged” to support the winner. And they are only pledged to vote for a candidate if they can do so “in good conscience.” One Democratic super-delegate I spoke with joked that the political definition of that phrase is “can they win in November.”

If Democratic delegates decide that Hillary is too much of a political liability to nominate, don’t expect them to turn to Bernie Sanders. Despite polls showing him with a bigger lead over Trump than Hillary has, few prominent Democrats believe that Sanders could survive sustained attacks on his record as a self-proclaimed “socialist.”

That’s where Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren would come in. Biden would be sold as a steady hand who would energize President Obama’s supporters, and Warren would be pitched to delegates as someone who could keep Sanders progressives on board. “The implication would be that, at age 74, Biden might serve only one term and Warren would be a natural successor,’ a former Democratic congressman told me.