When should you start worrying about the polls?

In some ways, the 2008 election mirrors this race, with two Democratic candidates fighting over the party nomination after the emergence of a presumptive Republican nominee. At this point in that election, Mr. Obama and John McCain were nearly tied, but that was before Mr. Obama was the clear Democratic nominee. Once he was, he became the favorite. The most significant movement came in the closing months of the contest, amid the 2008 financial crisis.

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