It was conventional wisdom among the political cognoscenti during most of the primary season that Donald Trump could not win the general election. The evidence seemed strong.
Over 12 months of polling from May 2015 to April 2016, Hillary Clinton ran ahead of Trump in 63 national polls, while Trump led her in only six and tied her in three. Polls in the dozen or so 2012 target states showed similar results.
But Trump enthusiasts insisted their man would easily prevail. Now May polling suggests, to paraphrase the former British Prime Minister Lord Melbourne, that what all the wise men promised has not happened and what all the damned fools said would happen has come to pass.
The current RealClearPolitics average of recent polls shows Trump with 43.4 percent and Clinton with 43.2 percent. The five polls in question were conducted between May 13 and May 19, well after Trump’s decisive victory in Indiana May 3.