Energy-poor Japan wants to diversify its oil and gas partners; at the same time, Russia needs new foreign investors following plummeting prices in oil and other commodities. While there is some level of bilateral economic exchange already, including Japanese investments in energy projects on Sakhalin, trade remains rather minor. This is a function not only of the lack of priority by both business communities to push for more opportunities, but Japanese businesses and banks are not in a rush to invest in the Russian economy due to its structural weaknesses within. Some hope that improved bilateral relations could boost economic ties.

The same is true for geopolitical ties. Russia’s Asia-Pacific engagement is comparatively thin compared to its European engagement. It has essentially one partner: China. Putin is said to have become concerned that China is increasing its business presence in the Far East and is wary of China’s military rise. This plays well with Japan, which is locked in an increasingly tense showdown with China in the maritime domain. Improved Russo-Japan ties help address both concerns. Abe can give Putin options to Asian partners so that Moscow does not have to maintain a heavy dependence on China. By extension, this can help drive a wedge—albeit a small one—in Russo-China ties, thereby adding another layer of complexity to Beijing’s strategic calculations.

But the potential benefits of Abe’s active pursuit of a constructive relationship with Putin risks policy differences with Washington. Washington maintains that economic sanctions on Russia remain in place until Russia observes a ceasefire with Ukraine. Unity of effort among U.S. allies is considered crucial. Although Japan has faithfully implemented the G-7 sanctions, Russia would seek to use any deal with Japan to weaken them and to send a message of “business as usual.”