First, when it comes to growth, the modern presidency is more like a tinkerer than a chief engineer. Factors like monetary policy, demographic changes, the invention and implementation of new technology, and housing policies are typically more important contributors to long-term growth than the president’s budget and executive orders.
Second, when evaluating a potential president’s taxes and budget, it’s more important to focus on values and feasibility than the elusive question of which budget plan will unlock mysteriously missing growth. A 2016 paper by William Gale at the Brookings Institution and Andrew Samwick found that it is “by no means obvious” that tax cuts grow the economy. Similar studies have found sketchy evidence that cutting taxes unleashes significant business activity. In the big picture, it’s unrealistic to expect that there is a secret fiscal combination to prosperity, as if 5 percent growth will suddenly appear if somebody thinks of the right marginal tax rate. Taxes are an indirect way to nudge GDP, but they’re a very efficient way to do something else: collect money and spend it on things that the public considers important—like guaranteed health care, poverty alleviation, education, defense, infrastructure, and so on. The president might not be able to conjure GDP growth out of thin air. But he (or she) can shape how the winnings are distributed. Don’t vote for the conjuring act. Vote for the distribution.
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