Democrats won the female vote in almost every election in the past 20 years (2010 is the sole exception, when Republican narrowly won among women). Yet, if anything, a larger gender gap correlates with a worse Democratic performance in House elections. Two of the three largest gender gaps on record – 11 points in 1994 and 10 points in 2012 and 2014 – occurred in two of the worst years for Democrats nationally. This happened because Democrats performed horribly among men, winning just 42 percent each time.

Finally, current polling is consistent with the notion that a gender gap could hurt Clinton. In the recent ABC/WaPo poll, Clinton does have a significant lead among women: 16 points. But she trails because Trump trounces her among men, by 22 points. Likewise, the Fox News poll shows Clinton defeating Trump by 14 points among women, but losing men by 22 points. The NBC News poll, in which Clinton leads, actually shows a significantly smaller gap, with Clinton performing worse among women: she leads by 13 points among women while losing men by nine. The RealClearPolitics’ average is here.

It is far too early to predict anything with certainty this cycle. But that includes the size of a gender gap, and who would be the beneficiary. All we can really say right now is that the gender gap giveth to Democrats, but it also taketh away.