Based on her primary vote totals, Clinton is vulnerable in the lean-Democrat state of New Hampshire (4 electoral votes) and the solid Democrat state of Pennsylvania (20). She also underwhelms in the lean-Republican states of Missouri (10) and North Carolina (13) and the battleground state of Ohio (18). She lost ground from 2008 to 2016 in all of those states. On a positive note, Clinton gained ground in the Democrat state of Michigan (16) and the battleground states of Florida (29), Virginia (13), and Colorado (9).

For Trump to win, he most certainly needs to do three things: firm up the lean-Republican states of Missouri and North Carolina; take the battleground states of Florida and Ohio; and pull the upset in Pennsylvania, which a Republican hasn’t won since 1988.

With those states, Trump would secure the White House with 277 electoral votes — only six more electoral votes than George W. Bush secured in 2000. That feat won’t be easy, but it isn’t as improbable as pundits declare.