If we look at what Republicans in the electorate actually tell pollsters, we cannot miss the disconnect between what the GOP has been selling for years and what GOP voters have been champing at the bit to buy.

A quick review of the 2012 National Election Study, a joint project of Stanford and the University of Michigan, demonstrates this. The Republican rank and file are not opposed to new taxes on high earners (62% supported tax increases on millionaires); fewer than one in 10 wanted to cut spending on Social Security; 63% supported restrictions on foreign imports.

On social issues, Republican voters are also more moderate than the conservative elites that claim to speak for them. In 2012, fewer than one in five Republicans nationwide wanted to ban abortion in all circumstances. A majority of Republicans favored legal recognition for same-sex couples.

The conservative movement’s takeover of the Republican Party — begun by Barry Goldwater and completed by Ronald Reagan — was an impressive tactical victory. However, the movement never convinced regular voters of the wisdom of its anti-government message.