Data and voter turnout operations aren’t substitutes for a politically skilled nominee and a winning message. But in a close race, which Clinton vs. Trump looks like at the outset, the stronger grassroots and digital organization can be worth a couple of percentage points at the polls.
That puts Trump at a particular disadvantage, given that he made less use of data and field organizing than most of his Republican competitors. Where most of them would have had at least a skeleton digital and field staff to build on, combined with the RNC’s considerable operations, Trump has nothing but the national party.
“The ground game is worth 2.5 points,” said a Republican strategist who advised one of Trump’s primary opponents. “In a presidential race, guess what the margin usually is?”
It doesn’t help matters that making decisions are going to require constant communication and consensus between the nominee’s Manhattan headquarters and RNC base camp in Washington, although it should help that Trump political director Rick Wiley held the same post at the RNC in 2012. The Clinton campaign is more likely to process decisions under one roof, at its headquarters in Brooklyn.
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