John McCain may be in trouble in Arizona

PPP’s new Arizona poll finds that John McCain has a negative approval rating with Republican primary voters, and is at pretty serious risk of losing nomination for another term. Only 35% of GOP voters approve of the job McCain is doing to 50% who disapprove. He’s in particularly poor standing with conservative voters. Among ‘somewhat conservative’ voters his approval spread is 33/52, and among ‘very conservative’ voters it drops all the way down to 18/67.

McCain is polling at only 39% in the Republican primary field. He’s benefiting from having multiple opponents. Kelli Ward is at 26%, Alex Meluskey at 4%, Scott McBean at 3%, and Clair Van Steenwyk at 2%. 27% are undecided. McCain is very strong among moderates, leading Ward 60-10. But among ‘somewhat conservative’ voters he leads just 34-29, and with ‘very conservative’ ones he’s down 35-28.

When you narrow the field down to just a choice between McCain and Ward, it’s a tie at 41%. Ward is polling this competitively at this point despite having only 41% name recognition. Even if McCain does manage to survive the Republican primary, it’s not going to be a walk in the park for him in the general.