The path to a Trump presidency

As always, the election turned on basic arithmetic. Hillary Clinton’s campaign message aimed at the aspirations of women and girls cost her more votes among Latino males under 40 than it gained her among suburban married white women. It was Donald Trump’s surprising over-performance among the first group—and Clinton’s under-performance with the second—that tipped this election’s battleground states into his column, and with them, the election.

Yet as political observers review the most unexpected election outcome since Truman beat Dewey in 1948, they see a deeper story behind the arithmetic: a series of miscalculations by Hillary Clinton and shrewd moves by Donald Trump that enabled the New York businessman to eke out the narrowest Electoral College victory since George W. Bush’s 271 in the year 2000.

To defeat Bernie Sanders in the Democratic primary contests, Hillary Clinton executed a series of policy left turns—and when she tried to pivot back in the general election, found voters cool to her latest efforts at reinvention.