Political prognosticator Nate Silver said Sunday that he gives Republican Donald Trump a 25 percent chance of winning the 2016 presidential election, while noting that he has been wrong before.
Mr. Silver admitted that he initially gave Mr. Trump only a 5 percent chance of capturing the Republican nomination, saying he would peak early and “flame out” like 2012 presidential contender Herman Cain.
“This is one of the crazier things we’ve seen in politics for a long time. I think it was fair for us to be skeptical early on about the odds this could occur,” Mr. Silver told CNN’s “Reliable Sources.”
Mr. Silver, who heads the statistical-analysis website FiveThirtyEight, included a few caveats in his latest prediction on the contest between presumptive nominees Mr. Trump and Democrat Hillary Clinton.
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